JPMorgan's Bitcoin Forecast and the Week in Macro

Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma and Brian Cubellis discuss JPMorgan's 31st Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, which projects about 10% a year for bitcoin over the next decade versus 7.5% for US large caps and 5.5% for gold. Brian argues that figure is conservative, pointing to bitcoin's history in 10-year windows. The hosts also cover Schwab's bitcoin trading rollout, Germany's Sparkassen, Switzerland's first retail spot bitcoin ETF, a USAA outage, the OCC's final GENIUS Act rule, France's tax on crypto-to-stablecoin swaps and an IMF paper on financial repression. They close on reported figures about CoreWeave bonds and off-balance-sheet AI debt.

Chapters

00:00 - Welcome and Opening Themes 04:32 - JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin 06:16 - Brian on Bitcoin's Historical 10-Year Returns 10:15 - The Hosts On Wall Street's Changing Tone 15:09 - Brian's Case on Bitcoin Volatility 18:07 - Schwab's Bitcoin Trading Rollout 21:17 - The Hosts On Large Firms and Bitcoin 25:04 - Sparkassen and Switzerland's first retail Bitcoin ETF 26:31 - The Week's Outage Discussion: USAA 29:38 - Ledger News, the GENIUS Act Rule and France's Swap Tax 34:24 - Stablecoins near $1 trillion a quarter 38:00 - The IMF on financial repression and Trump accounts 42:11 - The Hosts On Trade Flows and Bitcoin 51:50 - The Hosts On CoreWeave Bonds and AI Debt Figures 1:01:17 - The Hosts On Pressure Points in Markets 1:10:33 - The Hosts' Closing Case on Bitcoin