The Real Asset Supercycle Can Begin
The crew opens on the Clarity Act heading for a Senate vote as soon as next week, where Republicans need seven Democrats and a Trump-focused ethics package (a token ban, blind trusts, DOJ enforcement) has become the sticking point. Michael still leans toward passage while Brian admits he has flip-flopped a thousand times. They walk through the macro backdrop: the Strait of Hormuz still constrained, refinery sites hit, OPEC fracturing after the UAE's exit, and a 30-year Treasury yield above 5% for 27 sessions, the most since 2007, against roughly $40 trillion of federal debt. Jackson anchors the discussion on Incrementum's In Gold We Trust chart, where 1938, 1971, 1995, and 2020 each marked a real-asset low, with the US now 4% of population but 65% of global market cap. Brian and Michael argue Bitcoin near $66K is a fraction of gold's $30 trillion and equities' $75 trillion, so the repricing has barely started. They close on the US-China AI race, model distillation and export controls, wrench attacks now averaging over $100M, and another treasury company selling its Bitcoin at the bottom.
Chapters
00:00 - Intro: Market and geopolitical overview 00:08 - Market opening and initial comments 00:25 - Discussion on Iran, OPEC, and global oil markets 00:52 - Geopolitical implications for macroeconomics and Bitcoin 01:18 - US crypto legislation and Senate vote update 02:34 - Details of the ethics package and regulatory hurdles 03:36 - Political dynamics around Trump and crypto legislation 05:12 - Market sentiment and political influences on crypto 06:48 - Market structure, global adoption, and geopolitical risks 08:20 - Global regulatory landscape and US competitiveness 09:58 - Long-term macro trends and real asset cycles 12:17 - US Treasury yields, bond market signals, and interest rates 15:37 - Impact of Middle East conflict on energy and inflation 17:59 - Market reactions to geopolitical tensions 20:03 - US debt, fiscal policy, and bond yields 22:38 - Geopolitical shifts and oil market dynamics 25:17 - Real assets vs. financial assets long-term trends 28:33 - Market cycles, gold, Bitcoin, and inflation 32:58 - Long-term asset revaluation and market signals 37:36 - AI race: US vs. China and technological dominance 44:17 - AI advancements, model distillation, and geopolitical implications 50:33 - Market breakdowns, private credit, and consumer trends 53:29 - Closing thoughts and market outlook
